Betting on Inferno: The Wildfire Prediction Market Scandal The summer of 2025 has brought unprecedented devastation to the American West, with massive fires in Washington state and Oregon burning over 2 million acres of land and forcing tens of thousands to evacuate.
Amidst this chaos, a disturbing trend has emerged: prediction market platforms allowing users to bet on wildfires have become increasingly popular.
A group of Democratic senators from six states has sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), urging it to crack down on these platforms, which include Polymarket and Kalshi.