ASEAN Envoy to Engage All Myanmar Stakeholders at Manila Summit

ASEAN’s efforts to engage all stakeholders in Myanmar’s tumultuous future have taken on a new sense of urgency ahead of the Manila summit next week. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ special envoy, Maria Theresa Lazaro, is holding talks with armed rebel groups and the National Unity Government (NUG), reflecting the complexity of the crisis.

The Philippines, which takes over ASEAN’s chairmanship in 2026, has been quietly working behind the scenes to bring all parties together. Manila’s Foreign Secretary, Dominic Xavier Imperial, described Lazaro’s talks with rebel groups as “candid” and “productive,” signaling a degree of optimism about the prospects for dialogue.

However, the stakes are high, with Myanmar’s future hanging in the balance against the backdrop of rising tensions in the South China Sea. The Manila summit will also focus on finalizing a code of conduct (COC) between ASEAN and China, a process that has been stalled for years.

Lazaro is walking a tightrope. On one hand, she needs to engage with all stakeholders, including armed rebel groups and the NUG, if she hopes to make progress on Myanmar’s future. On the other hand, ASEAN must balance its desire to promote national reconciliation in Myanmar against the need to maintain stability in the region.

The context of these talks is crucial. The 2021 coup in Myanmar led to ASEAN barring the country’s leaders from its meetings, marking a significant escalation of tensions between the two sides. Since then, there have been few signs of progress towards a peaceful resolution.

ASEAN’s efforts are being closely watched by major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia. The Manila summit will be an opportunity for these countries to weigh in on the crisis and potentially offer their own solutions. But it remains to be seen whether they can put aside their competing interests and support ASEAN’s fragile diplomatic effort.

Lazaro must navigate a complex web of alliances and rivalries, all while trying to broker a deal that satisfies the competing demands of different stakeholders. It is a daunting task, but one that may ultimately hold the key to stabilizing Myanmar’s future.

The Weight of History

The Manila summit will take place just weeks after the 10th anniversary of an arbitral ruling on China’s South China Sea claims. That decision invalidated Beijing’s sweeping claims, but China has continued to reject it and expand its presence in the region.

ASEAN’s efforts to negotiate a code of conduct with China are seen as crucial to preventing further escalation. However, progress has been slow, and tensions remain high. The Manila summit will be an opportunity for ASEAN and China to put aside their differences and make concrete progress on the COC.

A Delicate Balance

ASEAN’s diplomatic efforts in Myanmar are taking place against a backdrop of rising tensions between major powers in the region. The United States, China, and Russia all have competing interests in Southeast Asia, and each is vying for influence with ASEAN member states.

Lazaro must navigate this complex web of alliances and rivalries if she hopes to succeed. She also has the backing of ASEAN’s member states, who are committed to promoting national reconciliation in Myanmar.

The Road Ahead

The Manila summit will be a critical moment in ASEAN’s efforts to stabilize Myanmar’s future. Lazaro’s talks with rebel groups and the NUG have generated optimism about the prospects for dialogue, but much work remains to be done.

ASEAN’s diplomatic effort is fragile and requires the support of all parties involved. If Lazaro can succeed where others have failed, it could have significant implications not just for Myanmar but also for the entire region.

As ASEAN member states gather in Manila next week, they will be acutely aware of the stakes. The outcome of these talks may determine whether Myanmar’s future is marked by stability or chaos. It remains to be seen which path ASEAN will choose.